11 febbraio 2019


Warren Thompson, 1929
Il PGR misura il rate al quale il numero di individui varia in un dato periodo di tempo:
\[ PGR = \frac{P(t_2) - P(t_1)}{P(t_1)(t_2 - t_1)} \]
Quanti saremo nel 2100?
Modello Logistico per la Crescita della Popolazione:
\[ \frac{dN}{dt} = rN(1-\frac{N}{K}) \] Integrando:
\[ N(t) = \frac{K N_0 e^{-rt}}{K + N_0(e^{-rt}-1)} \]
Dove:
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toba_catastrophe_theory
[2] https://www.kaggle.com/fernandol/countries-of-the-world
[3] https://data.worldbank.org/
[4] https://www.ecology.com/population-estimates-year-2050/ (early ages)
[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition
[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function
[7] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth
[8] http://www.clker.com/clipart-530947.html (clipart)
Dataset Variables:
| Year | Population | Ever_Born_People |
|---|---|---|
| 8000 B.C | 5.000.000 | 1.137.789.769 |
| 1200 | 450.000.000 | 73.754.465.125 |
| 1750 | 795.000.000 | 89.708.399.091 |
| 1850 | 1.265.000.000 | 93.754.639.100 |
| 1950 | 2.516.000.000 | 100.045.075.171 |
| 2017 | 7.536.000.000 | 108.470.690.115 |